Is the UAE's Gas Deal in Syria a Masterstroke for the West?
The Middle East is a region of immense strategic importance, and Syria sits at its crossroads, connecting Africa to the south and Europe to the west through its extensive Mediterranean coastline. As analyzed in my book on the new global oil market order (https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0C2RRNWNY), controlling Syria's economic and political future is crucial for any power seeking influence in the region. And this is where things get interesting. The recent removal of Bashar al-Assad, Russia's key ally in Syria, has opened a window of opportunity for the West, particularly the US and UK, to reshape the country's trajectory. But here's where it gets controversial: their strategy involves a delicate dance with Arab nations, particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to avoid the perception of neo-colonial occupation that plagued their interventions in Iraq and Libya.
The UAE's Dana Gas, a powerhouse in the energy sector, has just signed a preliminary deal with Syria's state oil company to redevelop its natural gas fields. These fields, alongside oil, were the backbone of Syria's economy before the civil war, and surprisingly, they suffered less damage than oil infrastructure during the conflict. Before the war, Syria produced around 316 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, with proven reserves of 8.5 trillion cubic feet. Russia, recognizing Syria's strategic value, had already begun developing its gas infrastructure, boosting production by 40% before 2011. This allowed Syria to become a major oil and gas producer in the eastern Mediterranean, generating a quarter of its government revenue from these exports.
Russia's heavy military intervention to support Assad culminated in the 2015 Cooperation Plan, which aimed to rebuild Syria's energy sector, including gas fields, oil refineries, and power plants. This plan, essentially, laid the groundwork for future expansion, conveniently funded by Russia. And this is the part most people miss: the West is now poised to reap the benefits of this Russian investment.
Syria's oil sector, too, holds promise. The 2015 plan included upgrading the Homs refinery, with a target capacity of 360,000 barrels per day. Before the war, Syria produced around 400,000 barrels of crude oil daily, with Europe importing over $3 billion worth annually. Many European refineries were specifically equipped to process Syria's heavy 'Souedie' crude, highlighting the country's importance in the global energy market.
With much of this infrastructure still intact, and largely paid for by Russia, it's no surprise that the US, UK, and EU have lifted sanctions on Syria's oil and gas sector. This paves the way for Western companies, like Dana Gas, to step in. Dana Gas, with its successful track record in Egypt and Iraq, including the volatile Kurdistan region, is a perfect fit for the West's strategy. Its recent announcement of gas sales from the Khor Mor project in Kurdistan underscores its expertise in navigating complex geopolitical landscapes.
This UAE-led gas deal in Syria is a potential triple win for the West. Firstly, it positions Western nations at the heart of Syria's economic revival, giving them significant influence over the country's future policies. Secondly, it integrates key Arab nations into the reconstruction of a strategically vital state, facilitating the expansion of Trump's Abraham Accord-style agreements across the region. And thirdly, it effectively sidelines Russia, denying them the fruits of their investment and strategic foothold in the region. In the high-stakes game of geopolitics and energy diplomacy, this is a significant victory for the West.
But is this a sustainable strategy? Can the West truly avoid the pitfalls of past interventions and build a genuinely collaborative relationship with Syria and its Arab partners? The coming years will tell, but one thing is certain: the UAE's gas deal in Syria has set the stage for a new chapter in the region's complex and often contentious history.
What do you think? Is this a shrewd move by the West, or a recipe for further instability in the region? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
For further reading on the evolving global oil market and its geopolitical implications, check out my book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0C2RRNWNY
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