Projecting the final College Football Playoff rankings: Is Alabama in or out? - NBC Sports
The College Football Playoff selection committee's unpaid members are in for a challenging weekend, as they must make tough decisions. BYU's loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game means at least two of the following teams will secure spots in the 12-team CFP: Alabama, Notre Dame, and/or Miami.
This weekend, only one of these teams played, and it was Alabama, which suffered a devastating loss. The Crimson Tide's performance against No. 3 Georgia in Atlanta was a disappointment, resulting in a 28-7 defeat. This marks Alabama's second loss in four games. The committee's history of penalizing teams that struggle near Selection Sunday while favoring rising teams is a crucial factor to consider.
The committee's decision-making process this year is uncertain. Last year, teams already in the bracket before the championship weekend rankings didn't drop out after participating in conference championship games. SMU, for instance, fell two spots but remained in the field. However, the committee didn't need to decide the value of conference championship games.
This year, the committee might have to make such a decision. If 10-3 Alabama is excluded from the field after being ranked No. 9 on Tuesday, it will cause significant backlash. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey would be furious if a team that reached and lost in the SEC championship game (as the No. 1 seed) is knocked out of the 12-team CFP, especially after being initially included.
This decision could significantly impact the SEC's incentive to play in the conference championship game, potentially leading to the elimination of conference championship games. The committee's decision on Sunday is crucial and should not be taken lightly.
I predict the committee will move Indiana to No. 1 after their victory over No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. The Buckeyes' loss is only a two-spot drop to No. 2 due to a close three-point game against the best team in the country. Georgia, despite being No. 3, may not face harsh penalties.
I expect Tulane and James Madison to make the field from the American conference and the Sun Belt, respectively. CFP rules state that the top five FBS conference champions automatically qualify for the 12-team field, and typically, four of these champions would be from the Power 4. However, this year, the ACC is an exception.
An 8-5 Duke team, unranked in the Top 25 on Tuesday, is unlikely to surpass the Sun Belt champions, James Madison. The committee's evaluation of the Miami-Notre Dame debate is a pressing question. Should Miami's narrow win over Notre Dame three months ago disqualify the Fighting Irish? Or is it more significant that Miami's losses are more severe than Notre Dame's?
The committee's mixed messages are confusing. They praised Notre Dame's consistency and defensive improvements, yet they also deemed Alabama's win over 5-7 Auburn impressive enough to rank the Crimson Tide ahead of the Fighting Irish.
Ultimately, I believe the committee will choose the easiest path, dropping Alabama two spots after its blowout loss to Georgia while emphasizing its wins over top-25 teams. This decision would place Alabama behind Notre Dame and Miami, allowing both teams to enter the 12-team field despite facing criticism.
It would also support the ACC's inclusion in the CFP and potentially rank Miami ahead of Notre Dame due to their Week 1 result. The committee's recent ranking of Texas ahead of Vanderbilt, despite the latter's victory, suggests they might prioritize recent performance.
The committee's rankings will be revealed at noon ET on Sunday, and much of the decision hinges on their current preferences and justifications.
